‘Forecasting Seems Hard Work’
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
There’s a lot to like in this book. It shows how some folks who have disproportionately good results when forecasting actually go about creating their forecasts.
A lot of it focuses on a similar theme to Thinking, Fast And Slow, a book I started over a year before I started this book but I still managed to finish this one first. Maybe that says something about their relative readability. Or my ability to stick with things.
Anyway, this book also discusses rationality and biases, and how particular people in particular circumstances have ways to overcome those biases. It provides the basis of a toolbox for the reader to follow along and learn to overcome their own forecasting biases.